Following the Bali Talks (But Not Too Closely...)
There sure are a lot of news reports
being filed from Bali—where delegates from some 190 nations are starting to discuss what sort of climate change treaty might follow Kyoto—but there's not much in the way of actual, er, news.
The one piece I'd recommend is Alan Zarembo's harsh—but perfectly fair—article
in the Los Angeles Times
detailing all the ways in which the Kyoto Protocol fell flat. The only reason participating countries could report a 12 percent drop in emissions was because industries in the former Soviet Union collapsed after 1990 and factories were shuttered across Eastern Europe. If you exclude the former Soviet bloc, total CO2 emissions from countries bound by Kyoto's caps actually rose
about 8 percent since 1990.
Now, in many ways, Kyoto was less about achieving dramatic reductions and more about getting countries together to start acting like grown-ups and cooperating over climate change. (Although it was obviously a huge problem that the United States never ratified the treaty and that it exempted developing countries from pollution limits.) So it's probably fair, as one expert tells the Times
, to say that Kyoto "was a diplomatic success, but environmentally it was a complete failure," though obviously that excuse won't fly this time around...Okay, one more
: This Der Spiegel
dispatch, if true, is unbelievable. The Bush administration has long insisted that it won't accept mandatory caps on greenhouse gas emissions because, among other things, China and India haven't done so. But now U.S. officials are "discreetly" trying to convince China and India to publicly declare that they
won't accept binding caps unless the United States does more—in effect, deadlocking the talks.Another:
George Monbiot complains
that the UN goals for emissions cuts are inadequate, and that the only
way we're going to avoid dangerous climate change is through "the complete decarbonization of the global economy." He actually thinks it can be done without too
much calamity, although we'll probably have to give up flying... Yikes. Although maybe we can bring back the Zeppelin?